Materials Sector Poised for 20% Earnings Growth in 2026 on U.S. Tariff Tailwinds

U.S. materials companies are projected to deliver their strongest earnings performance in five years, with analysts forecasting ~20% profit growth for 2026. The sector trails only technology in expected returns, fueled by Trump-era tariffs that continue to reshape trade dynamics. Steelmakers and packaging firms stand to benefit disproportionately, with both subsectors anticipated to exceed 30% earnings growth.

Trade protections have granted domestic producers unprecedented pricing power. Nucor, Sherwin-Williams, and packaging conglomerates Smurfit WestRock and Ball Corp. are particularly well-positioned. "U.S. mills should continue to displace imports as long as 50% Section 232 tariffs remain in place," notes Bloomberg Intelligence's Richard Bourke. Nucor's robust 2026 order book reflects burgeoning demand from energy, infrastructure, and data center projects.

The tariff-driven price environment coincides with shifting consumer behavior. Steel prices are climbing while packaging demand surges—food brands increasingly rely on discounted bulk offerings, driving can and box orders upward. Steel Dynamics reports growing backlogs, anticipating that anticipated rate cuts will further stimulate infrastructure spending and production capacity.